Scenario Planning and Analysis
Understand and develop scenario plans to anticipate and solve for risks and uncertainties the Indian government might face, while managing social interests and government priorities.
Type
Functional
Competency Area
Risk Management
Levels
Understand various types of scenario planning methodologies
Understands the history and role of scenario planning and analysis
Lists types of scenario planning (quantitative, operational, normative, strategic, etc.)
Demonstrates the essence of project risk management in scenario planning, as a (i) process and (ii) matrix of uncertainties and complexities
Scopes for target issues that can influence a scenario
Supports scenario planning by scoping target issues, and brainstorming drivers and factors that influence the scenario
Aware of strategic management tools (PESTEL analysis, CAGE analysis, SWOT assessment, etc.)
Distinguishes between scenarios and forecasts with a focus on uncertainties, complexities, and risks
Applies strategic management tools to scenarios and tests implications for each scenario
Contributes to scenario planning by identifying uncertainties and distinguishing them from trends
Applies strategic management tools, and logics (eg. 2-by-2 matrix) to scenarios to eliminate over and under predictions for the future
Develops scenario plans by identifying driving forces, critical uncertainties, plausible scenarios, and their implications
Conducts impact and sensitivity analyses to measure scenario outcomes, identify interdependencies and interpret key factors and uncertainties
Sustains and optimises scenario plans suited for future needs
Analyses strategic implications for each scenario, including needed variations, success factors, and contingency plans
Secures commitment from all stakeholders on key issues that need to be addressed and evaluated
Evaluates scenario outcomes and determine potential implications for the business
Adapts scenario plan, analysis, and related strategy to changing assumptions
Sustains scenario plans by optimising the right data, technology, and human resources