Scenario Planning and Analysis

Understand and develop scenario plans to anticipate and solve for risks and uncertainties the Indian government might face, while managing social interests and government priorities.



Competency Area

Risk Management


Understand various types of scenario planning methodologies

Understands the history and role of scenario planning and analysis

Lists types of scenario planning (quantitative, operational, normative, strategic, etc.)

Demonstrates the essence of project risk management in scenario planning, as a (i) process and (ii) matrix of uncertainties and complexities

Scopes for target issues that can influence a scenario

Supports scenario planning by scoping target issues, and brainstorming drivers and factors that influence the scenario

Aware of strategic management tools (PESTEL analysis, CAGE analysis, SWOT assessment, etc.)

Distinguishes between scenarios and forecasts with a focus on uncertainties, complexities, and risks

Applies strategic management tools to scenarios and tests implications for each scenario

Contributes to scenario planning by identifying uncertainties and distinguishing them from trends

Applies strategic management tools, and logics (eg. 2-by-2 matrix) to scenarios to eliminate over and under predictions for the future

Develops scenario plans by identifying driving forces, critical uncertainties, plausible scenarios, and their implications

Conducts impact and sensitivity analyses to measure scenario outcomes, identify interdependencies and interpret key factors and uncertainties

Sustains and optimises scenario plans suited for future needs

Analyses strategic implications for each scenario, including needed variations, success factors, and contingency plans

Secures commitment from all stakeholders on key issues that need to be addressed and evaluated

Evaluates scenario outcomes and determine potential implications for the business

Adapts scenario plan, analysis, and related strategy to changing assumptions

Sustains scenario plans by optimising the right data, technology, and human resources